We begin with the premise that the future is uncertain, and then reframe the premise by asking . . . where is the market the most certain?
We examine macro and micro investment themes that appear plausible, but are in fact improbable; popular investment theses that extrapolate short-term conditions ad infinitum. We listen for “you just don’t understand” and “this time is different.”
We also seek structural dislocations, the causes for which are cyclical or impermanent; in sectors where key factors will likely revert.
Lastly, we concentrate our investments in a few mispriced assets that offer asymmetric returns, and holding them for the long-term to minimize trading costs.